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2025 Hurricane Season Predictions: National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is the overarching government agency responsible for environmental science, including weather forecasting, while the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a specialized division within NOAA that focuses specifically on tropical cyclones. The NHC is responsible for tracking, forecasting, and issuing warnings for hurricanes and tropical storms.
As a certified arborist, I spend every spring and summer preparing trees for the weather New Jersey is about to face. This year, forecasters are sounding the alarm early. NOAA has released its official 2025 hurricane season predictions, and it’s shaping up to be one of the more active seasons in recent memory.
Experts forecast:
- 13 to 19 named storms
- 6 to 10 hurricanes
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger)
The Atlantic is unusually warm right now, and meteorologists say a La Niña phase will develop by mid-summer. That means less wind shear, which normally breaks up storm systems. Without it, storms can grow stronger and faster. Add in warmer waters, and you’ve got a recipe for more hurricanes, not fewer.
The World Meteorological Organization has also released the official 2025 storm names. A few to listen for this year: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, and Felix.
If you’re looking for the key takeaways from this forecast:
- 2025 hurricane season forecast is above average
- Warm Atlantic waters and La Niña expected to fuel more intense storms
- NJ may not get a direct hit but will feel the effects of increased storm activity
New Jersey's Risk for Hurricanes in 2025
New Jersey is often overlooked when people think about hurricanes, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of harm’s way. According to the latest forecast models, New Jersey has:
- 28% chance of being impacted by a named storm
- 9% chance of a hurricane
- 1% chance of a major hurricane
Even small storms or tropical depressions can bring days of soaking rain and high winds. That’s when the trees start falling. Superstorm Sandy wasn’t a major hurricane when it hit us, but the damage was extensive because of wind direction, soil saturation, and timing.
Flooding, erosion, and softened soil increase the likelihood of trees tipping over. High winds can snap limbs or send dead branches crashing into roofs, power lines, and vehicles.
Keep this in mind as we look ahead:
- NJ faces measurable storm risks even without a direct hurricane hit
- Wind and rain from distant systems still cause major tree damage
- Historical storms like Sandy and Ida prove even lower-category systems are dangerous
How Hurricanes Affect Trees in New Jersey
Trees in New Jersey are strong, but storms don’t care. When the soil gets saturated, roots lose their grip. When the wind hits, trees twist, lean, and fall. Even healthy trees can fail under these conditions. Damaged trees don’t always show signs until it’s too late.
Here’s how storms impact trees:
- Prolonged rain loosens soil, making it easier for trees to uproot
- Strong winds shear large limbs and push full canopies
- Decay or old pruning wounds fail under pressure
- Sudden gusts break structurally weak unions
Here’s what this means for your property:
- Storms weaken root systems and expose hidden structural problems
- Fallen trees cause property damage, blocked roads, and power outages
- Prevention is the only way to reduce tree-related storm damage
Who’s Most at Risk During A Hurricane
Monmouth County and surrounding coastal towns see the brunt of it. Neighborhoods in Middletown, Deal, Long Branch, and Atlantic Highlands have older trees and denser canopies. These areas also tend to have homes built close to tree lines, fences, and sidewalks.
Risk factors include:
- Tall, mature trees near homes or garages
- Trees planted in compacted soil or near saturated ground
- Trees with visible lean, fungus, cracks, or dead limbs
- Properties with poor drainage or near steep slopes
What we see again and again after each storm:
- Homes with older, larger trees are most vulnerable
- Wet or sloped ground increases root failure risk
- Tree damage is predictable when warning signs are ignored
How to Prepare Your Trees for Hurricane Season
At Hufnagel Tree Service, we take storm prep seriously. The best time to prepare a tree is before the wind starts blowing. If you’re not sure what to look for, we offer assessments to help you identify risks before they turn into emergencies.
The benefits of acting early are clear:
- Proactive care is far safer and less expensive than emergency removal
- Every property should be assessed before the next big storm
- Hufnagel Tree Service offers storm-ready solutions tailored to NJ homes
Schedule Service
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Schedule Your Hurricane Tree Checkup Today
Hurricane season is already underway. The longer you wait, the more crowded our schedule gets. If you have trees close to your home, power lines, or driveway, now is the time to act. We serve homeowners throughout Monmouth County, including Middletown, Allenhurst, Deal, Holmdel, and Rumson.
We offer professional storm prep assessments, pruning, and tree removal with safety as our top priority. Don’t wait for the next named storm to put your property at risk.
Call Hufnagel Tree Service today to schedule your hurricane-season tree inspection.
